the analytics vault
Resources: 136 (72 new this week)
a Hipster Data Club product Hipster Data Club

Why your trending KPI charts are lying to you (and what to do about it)

Original: Interpreting Signals in Trending KPIs

May 29, 2025
9 min read
Tutorial
Advanced
Interpreting Signals in Trending KPIs

Summary

This article discusses how regression lines and Excel-computed trend lines are poor at detecting signals in KPIs with underlying trends. Instead, the author recommends using a trending XmR chart to better interpret signals in these types of KPIs.

Who This Is For

Business Analysts
Marketing Analysts
Marketing Managers

Key Takeaways

  • Learn why Excel trend lines and regression analysis fail to detect real signals in trending KPIs
  • Master the trending XmR chart technique to separate genuine performance changes from natural trends
  • Calculate trending factors using half-averages and increments to build proper Central Lines and Process Limits
  • Identify when trends are accelerating, decelerating, or changing direction in your performance data

Tools & Technologies

Excel XmR Charts Statistical Process Control Trending XmR Chart Template

Topics Covered

kpi-analysis time-series regression statistical-process-control