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When your ROAS looks good but you're still burning money

Original: Why Marginal ROAS Matters and How to Measure It - Tomi.ai

May 29, 2025
4 min read
Article
Intermediate
Why Marginal ROAS Matters and How to Measure It - Tomi.ai

Summary

This article discusses the importance of measuring incrementality and causal impact in marketing campaigns, rather than relying solely on ROAS. It covers methods like geo-split tests, hold-out audiences, and ghost ads to establish true lift and isolate the causal effect of marketing investments.

Who This Is For

Performance Marketers
Marketing Managers
Marketing Analysts

Key Takeaways

  • Calculate marginal ROAS using the formula: ROAS * n, where n typically falls between 1/2 and 2/3 for most campaigns
  • Use historical spending vs revenue data to find your campaign's diminishing returns multiplier
  • Set bid caps based on marginal ROAS (multiply your minimal ROAS by 1.5) to prevent overspending on Facebook campaigns
  • Apply incrementality thinking to exclude organic conversions and isolate true campaign impact

Tools & Technologies

Facebook Ads Manager CRM systems Statistical analysis tools Tomi.ai predictive models

Topics Covered

incrementality lift-testing causal-inference

Ready to dive deeper?

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